ISO: Demand Conditions in Export Markets Showed Improvement Throughout the Year
The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ICO) has announced the results for December 2024 of the Turkey Manufacturing Sector Export Climate Index, which measures the operating conditions in the primary export markets of the Turkish manufacturing sector. All figures above the threshold value of 50.0 indicate an improvement in the export climate, while values below 50 indicate a deterioration.
The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Turkey Manufacturing Sector Export Climate Index rose from 50.6 in November to 50.9 in December. With the positive figure in the last month of the previous year, the demand conditions in export markets demonstrated improvement throughout the year. Although the improvement in December was moderate, it was more pronounced compared to November.
Saudi Arabia showed the strongest production growth in the Middle East. Among all countries tracked in the PMI survey in December, the fastest economic growth rates were observed in the Middle East. Following Saudi Arabia, which experienced the strongest production increase, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ranked second as the expansion rate reached an eight-month peak. While production rapidly increased in Kuwait, the rise in Qatar was relatively moderate. Economic activity contracted in Egypt and Lebanon. These six economies together account for approximately 7% of Turkey's manufacturing exports.
In the United States, a sharp increase in production was recorded, while Europe exhibited mixed performance. In the U.S., where the manufacturing sector's share in export markets is 6%, economic activity saw a significant increase in December. The growth in this country gained momentum for the third consecutive month, reaching its highest rate since April 2022. In European economies, however, a more complex performance was noted. Growth was recorded in the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Kazakhstan, and Russia, while the expansion accelerated in Spain and Greece in the last month of the year. Conversely, declines were observed in production volumes in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Austria, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Among the countries for which PMI data was released in December, Austria experienced the most severe contraction in manufacturing output.
In Asia, India maintained a strong growth trend. In December, economic activity showed moderate increases in China and Brazil, while India continued to exhibit robust growth. India ranked third among the countries where the fastest expansion was recorded, following Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Commenting on the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Turkey Export Climate Index, Andrew Harker, Director of Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated: “With the strengthening of demand conditions in December, Turkish manufacturers experienced improvements in the export climate throughout 2024. However, within this positive overall picture, there were quite conflicting trends in different regions of the world. The Middle East emerged as one of the significant sources of growth throughout the year, while positive performance was especially noted in the U.S. in the second half of 2024. Conversely, demand in the Eurozone remained much more fragile, with some countries showing pronounced weakness. Turkish firms are starting 2025 hopeful for a more balanced demand environment in key trade markets.”