EURUSD

As we approach the end of the first month of the new year, the flow of critical data in global markets continues. Following the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision and President Lagarde's statements will be important developments to watch, alongside the U.S. Q4 Growth data. The impact of the Dollar Index may increase volatility in EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs. While a 25 basis point rate cut is expected from the ECB in this meeting, a total reduction of 100 basis points is anticipated throughout the year. The main focus will be on Lagarde's response to the monetary policy strategy during the Trump era.

The classic Dollar Index shows a medium-term positive trend above the 233-day average (104.80), but short-term movements below the 34-day average (107.73) are noteworthy. Similar to developments in DXY, the EURUSD pair is at an important decision stage in the 1.0409 – 1.0430 range. In this process, the direction of the Dollar Index will determine the future movements of the pair.