Renowned Aerospace Analyst Cai von Rumohr Retires from TD Cowen After 55 Years
Cai von Rumohr, a respected analyst who has followed the Aerospace and Defense sector for over 50 years, announced his retirement from TD Cowen. He will officially retire on December 31, 2024. His 24-year partner, Gautam Khanna, and Jack Ayers, who has been with TD Cowen for four years, will take over his coverage responsibilities.
Reflecting on his long career, von Rumohr shared some key lessons and observations gained from his time in the industry. He noted how much the sector has changed, from the days when Boeing engineers delivered drawings via a roller-skate courier to the present day, where advanced technologies such as 3D modeling and computer-aided design are commonplace.
He also shared his thoughts on various investment considerations within the Aerospace and Defense industry. This included historical trends, such as the performance of defense stocks during presidential elections, the impact of unexpected presidential decisions on defense spending, and the risks associated with long-term, fixed-price defense contracts.
Von Rumohr emphasized the importance of understanding the effects of technological changes, knowing what the market wants, and comprehending consolidation strategies. He highlighted the significance of cultural alignment in acquisitions and the need to follow emerging technologies like eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM).
The retiring analyst stressed the importance of understanding the risks and opportunities presented by technological advancements in the sector. He pointed out that Airbus’s failure to capitalize on the trend of improving aircraft engine reliability, which would allow fuel-efficient twin-engine planes to fly longer point-to-point routes, led to the end of A380 production in 2021.
Von Rumohr also addressed the significance of monitoring the developing eVTOL and UAM sectors. Although certification goals for eVTOLs continue to shift, he believes that the technology's carbon-neutral characteristics, improved short-range economics, and low noise levels are disruptive and will continue to evolve.
His departure marks the end of an era at TD Cowen, where he has been a prominent figure in the analysis of the Aerospace and Defense sector. The insights and lessons he has gathered throughout his long career will serve as a valuable guide for those who continue his work.