Despite a decline in merger and acquisition transactions in Turkey over 11 months, a record increase in transaction volume was observed.

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Despite a decline in merger and acquisition transactions in Turkey over 11 months, a record increase in transaction volume was observed.

KPMG Turkey has announced the findings of its annual "Mergers and Acquisitions Trends from KPMG's Perspective" report for the first 11 months of 2024. According to the results, while there was a decline in the number of mergers and acquisitions in Turkey, there was a record increase in transaction volume.

Global developments such as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and general elections in the United States shaped the main agenda for 2024. In Turkey, key topics included steps to ensure economic stability following the general elections, combating inflation, exiting from the gray list, the reconstruction process following the earthquake disaster, and the completion of local elections in March.

In line with expectations from the previous year, KPMG observed the positive impact of economic reform policies on mergers and acquisitions through an increase in transaction volume throughout 2024. The company noted that this positive trend supports its expectations for 2025 and anticipates that positive momentum will continue during this period.

In the first 11 months of 2024, the standout sector in terms of transaction volume and number was technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT). Alongside TMT, interest is expected to continue increasing in the energy, industrial production, and automotive sectors in the upcoming period.

The performance over the first 11 months indicates that mergers and acquisitions activities in Turkey saw a significant increase in transaction volume compared to the previous year in 2024. As of the end of November 2024, the overall volume of mergers and acquisitions in Turkey reached $5.5 billion, doubling the $2.7 billion volume from the same period last year. However, there was a slight decline in the number of transactions compared to the same period. The total number of transactions as of the end of November 2024 was 424, compared to 486 in the same period last year. Nonetheless, based on assessments and evaluations conducted by KPMG Turkey, it is estimated that the transaction volume in the first 11 months of 2024 reached approximately $9.4 billion, representing a significant increase from $7.3 billion in the previous year.

Globally, the volume of mergers and acquisitions was $2.4 trillion in the first 11 months of 2023, increasing by 13% to $2.7 trillion in the same period of 2024. In terms of transaction numbers, about 51,000 transactions occurred in the first 11 months of 2023, while approximately 44,000 transactions were recorded in the same timeframe of 2024.

The contraction in investors’ risk appetite has led the market to shift towards safe havens compared to high-risk investments. This decline in the number of transactions was primarily driven by a decrease in smaller-scale startup and venture capital investments compared to the previous year. In 2024, both globally and in Turkey, larger-scale investments came to the forefront. This trend indicates that investors are reassessing their risk perceptions in global markets and seeking safe havens in an economically uncertain climate.

No mega transactions (worth $1 billion or more) occurred in Turkey in 2023, while in 2024, the acquisition of e-commerce giant Hepsiburada by Kazakhstan's Kaspi.kz for $1.1 billion was the only mega transaction recorded in the first 11 months. This transaction supports Turkey's know-how and strategic position in the technology and e-commerce ecosystem. Additionally, energy stood out with three transactions among the top 10 transactions based on disclosed volume, while technology, media, and telecommunications had two.

The acquisition of Hepsiburada by Kaspi.kz for $1.1 billion became the largest disclosed transaction in the first 11 months of 2024. This high-profile deal, where Kaspi.kz purchased a 65% stake in Hepsiburada for $1.1 billion, enhanced Turkey's regional influence in the TMT sector and contributed to the strengthening of Kaspi.kz's digital ecosystem and e-commerce activities. Another significant transaction in the same sector involved US-based financial investor General Atlantic's $500 million investment in Insider, marking support from global investment circles for Insider, a leader in marketing technologies coming from Turkey.

There were noteworthy acquisitions in the energy sector in 2024, with the largest transaction in this sector being the acquisition of Polimetal Madencilik by UK-based ACG Metals for $225.5 million. Another significant transaction was Palmet Enerji's purchase of Zorlu Enerji (IS:ZOREN) Distribution for $200 million, enhancing its presence in this area. The activity in the sector did not stop there; Doğan Holding (IS:DOHOL) signed one of the prominent deals of 2024 by acquiring 75% of Gümüştaş Madencilik for $123 million. Another notable move that did not disclose its transaction value involved Zeren Group acquiring 100% of Türkiye Petrolleri. These transactions indicate that the energy sector continues to attract investors, similar to trends observed in global markets.

Other sectors preferred by foreign investors included transportation, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, as well as industrial production and automotive. Danish company DFDS, which proved its interest in the logistics sector by acquiring Turkey's logistics giant Un-Roro in 2018, completed one of the year’s important transactions by purchasing 100% of Ekol Transport for $253.6 million in November 2024. Additionally, French company Curium Pharma acquired 50% of Eczacıbaşı Monrol, operating in the pharmaceuticals and health sector, for $121.8 million in April 2024. US-based Quexco bought Mutlu Akü from South Africa's Metair for $110 million in September 2024.

Tosyalı Holding's acquisition of Baştuğ Metalurji is highlighted as another significant transaction of the year, although its transaction value was not disclosed. This acquisition marks a major purchase in the industrial production sector, seen as a key step for Tosyalı to enhance its production capacity and market share in the steel sector, strengthening its regional leadership.

The TMT sector led both in terms of the number of transactions and disclosed transaction volume with a total of 202 transactions and $1.9 billion in disclosed volume. In addition to Hepsiburada and Insider, significant transactions in the sector included a $50 million early-stage investment from Spyke Games by UK-based Moon Active, and Sabancı Holding’s technology subsidiary DxBV acquiring 65% of cloud-based solutions provider Bulutistan for $39 million.

In terms of transaction numbers, the United States was the leading investor with 14 transactions in the first 11 months of 2024, followed by France, Germany, and the Netherlands with 7 transactions each. The United Kingdom followed with 5 transactions, and Sweden, Italy, and the United Arab Emirates had 4 transactions each.

In terms of transaction volume, Kazakhstan ranked first due to the $1.1 billion transaction volume generated from the Hepsiburada acquisition, followed by the United States with a disclosed transaction volume of $747.2 million. The United Kingdom emerged as another prominent country in this period with a transaction volume of $290.5 million.

Foreign investors carried out 78 transactions with a total disclosed volume of $2.9 billion in the first 11 months of 2024. This number of transactions constituted 18% of total transactions in terms of volume but accounted for 53% of disclosed transaction volumes, indicating an increase in transaction volume compared to the same period last year and reaffirming foreign investors' continued interest in larger-scale acquisitions, similar to previous periods.

While financial investor transactions showed a decline in transaction numbers compared to 2023, they were three times higher in terms of volume from the previous year. In the first 11 months of 2024, financial investors (including private equity, venture capital, sovereign funds, etc.) executed a total of 212 transactions. Although there was a slight decrease compared to the 259 transactions in the same period last year, the transaction volume generated by financial investors at $1 billion, influenced by Insider's investment, was approximately three times higher than in 2023.

Turkey continues to be an important investment hub in the gaming sector. In the first 11 months of 2024, Moon Active made headlines by acquiring a 14.3% stake in Spyke Games for $50 million. Additionally, Cypher Games raised a total of $10 million in a funding round led by the US-based Raine Group, involving investors from Singapore, Italy, and Turkey. Throughout the year, a total of 17 gaming ventures received investments, indicating that Turkey's gaming ecosystem maintains a strong position in the global market.

Expectations for 2025 are positive. Özge İlhan Acar, Partner and Head of M&A Services at KPMG Turkey, stated regarding the expectations for 2025: “2024 was a year when global growth slowed due to central banks raising interest rates globally. The presidential elections in the United States, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East created uncertainty in global markets, leading investors to act cautiously. However, 2024 has been a year where the transaction volume globally increased but the number of transactions decreased, as investors sought safe havens and shifted towards large-scale investments. Specifically in Turkey, the agenda was shaped by steps towards ensuring economic stability post-general elections, fighting inflation, exiting the gray list, and the local elections completed in March, with investor interest in transaction volume concentrating on TMT, industrial production and automotive, retail and energy sectors. Taking into account our estimates for undisclosed transactions, we observe that the energy sector constitutes the majority of the estimated total transaction volume, which demonstrates that the Turkish ecosystem is aligned with global trends.

For 2025, it is expected that Turkey will focus on reducing inflation and ensuring macroeconomic stability through tight monetary policies and financial regulations aimed at decreasing budget deficits; and alongside the investor-friendly policies that have maintained attraction in the TMT and energy sectors, there will likely be a continuous increase in acquisition activities in companies engaged in industrial production and automotive, as well as those utilizing advanced technology for value-added production."

KPMG Turkey's expectations for 2025 include:

  • Global investor interest in technology-supported defense industry, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and biotechnology solutions as a result of the application of technology and artificial intelligence across various industrial solutions.
  • Acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in energy, TMT, and digitally transformation-focused technologies in line with global trends.
  • Increased momentum in mergers and acquisitions of domestic companies within the framework of sustainability strategies.
  • Continuation of investor-friendly monetary policies in Turkey, ensuring the sustainability of the trust environment and increased foreign capital and investor interest.

Particularly, startups in gaming, software, artificial intelligence, and data analytics are expected to increase their investments by leveraging Turkey's potential as a regional technology hub.