Nationwide Predicts a 9% Increase in Black Friday Spending

Nationwide Building Society anticipates a significant increase in customer spending on Black Friday, estimating approximately 10.6 million payments will be made. This represents a 9% increase compared to last year's 9.7 million payments. The total daily spending is expected to exceed £336 million, which translates to an average of £233,333 per minute. This figure reflects a 12% increase compared to the £300 million spent in 2023 and the average of £208,333 per minute.

The society's forecasts are based on an analysis of historical and current spending patterns on Nationwide's bank accounts and credit cards. A recent survey conducted by Nationwide with 2,000 individuals revealed that over 80% of consumers plan to participate in Black Friday sales, with an expected average spending of £278 per person.

While many consumers express the desire to stick to their budgets (24% report having a fixed budget), over half (52%) have not set a spending limit or are prepared to exceed it for items they need or want. The event also generates significant digital traffic; last year, there were 6.9 million logins to the Nationwide Banking APP on Black Friday, representing a 17% increase compared to the last Friday in October 2023.

Shoppers primarily target electronics, clothing, toys and games, as well as beauty products. While major online retailers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and stores like John Lewis are expected to attract the majority of sales, a notable number of consumers (22%) will also turn to small independent websites, with 20% exploring opportunities on online marketplaces such as eBay, Vinted, and Facebook Marketplace.

Interest in Black Friday discounts is high; 60% of consumers typically express satisfaction with their purchases, with no products being returned. However, around 32% of shoppers return up to five items, often due to excessive spending.

Nationwide warns its customers to be cautious regarding Black Friday offers, especially those that seem too good to be true. Indeed, 21% admit they could shop from an unfamiliar website if the prices are significantly lower. While 45% would conduct some research before purchasing, 49% have never reported suspicious transactions to their banks. According to UK Finance’s Annual Fraud Report, shopping fraud constituted 67% of Authorized Push Payment (APP) fraud cases last year.

Mark Nalder, Nationwide’s Director of Payment Strategy, commented on this trend: "It appears that Black Friday continues to be the 'starting bell' for Christmas shopping, and we are preparing for yet another record-breaking Black Friday. Despite the cost-of-living challenges, consumers are still targeting Black Friday for a significant portion of their Christmas shopping."

Nalder emphasized the importance of safe online shopping practices, advising consumers to use credit or debit cards for better protection and to utilize Nationwide’s Fraud Control Service if they have concerns about potential fraud.