Marubeni Expects Japanese Aluminum Premiums to Exceed $200 Per Ton by 2025

Forex - Japanese trading company Marubeni has announced that premiums paid by Japanese buyers for aluminum are likely to exceed $200 per ton in 2025 due to a tightening supply in Asia.

Japan’s premiums have risen to $175 per ton, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous three months, driven by concerns over supply amid high premiums in Europe. Sources indicate that in negotiations for shipments from January to March, some Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $228 per ton to a global producer based on the benchmark price, representing a 30% rise compared to this quarter and the highest premium observed since 2015.

Leading Japanese aluminum trader Marubeni forecasts that premiums will remain between $220 and $255 per ton during the January-March period, and between $200 and $300 per ton for the remainder of 2025.

Eisuke Akasaka, General Manager of Marubeni's Light Metals Division, stated, “The increase in Russian metal inflow to China, logistic disruptions in the Middle East, and Japanese companies exiting the aluminum smelting business have shifted the balance of power, heightening the market's sensitivity to premiums in other regions.”

Marubeni estimates the average aluminum price for 2025 to be $2,700 per ton, anticipating it will reach $3,000 per ton by the end of the year due to China's production capacity nearing its limits and a tightening supply.