Most Japanese Companies Anticipate Trump's Presidency Will Harm the Business Environment

According to a survey conducted among economists, the initial tariffs may come into effect as early as the beginning of next year; the median forecast is 38%, with estimates ranging between 15% and 60%. Trump has also threatened to impose a 25% tax on goods coming from Mexico, where some Canadian and Japanese automobile manufacturers have factories. A manager from a machinery manufacturing company participating in the survey stated, "It's difficult to predict Trump's policies, which makes it challenging for our client companies to make investment decisions."

Seventy-three percent of respondents indicated that Trump's second term in the White House would not be good for the business environment, while the remaining respondents expected positive impacts, citing anticipated expansions in U.S. domestic demand through tax cuts and possible revisions in energy and environmental policies. When asked what measures they would take if Trump increased tariffs, two-thirds of survey participants said their business strategies would not change, while 22% stated they would cut costs, and 8% said they would work to expand their presence in markets outside the U.S.

The survey was conducted by Nikkei Research for Reuters between November 27 and December 6. Nikkei Research reached out to 505 companies, with 236 responding on the condition of anonymity.