BofA Economists Expect China's Exports to Remain Strong

BofA economists Xiaoqing Pi and Anna Zhou expect that China's exports will remain strong in the near term due to front-loaded orders, ahead of potential tariff shocks expected next year. However, they noted that there would be a payback period for this front-loading between Q2 and Q3 2025, and that the impact of tariff increases could further exacerbate this situation. They also highlighted that China's export growth in November remained robust as traders rushed to take advantage of the window before potential tariffs that could be imposed by the new Trump administration. Economists also pointed out that additional measures are expected to be taken by Chinese policymakers in Q1 to support import growth following the recent comments from the Politburo.